Political Overview: G20 meeting taking place in Hamburg, CDU presents election program, Merkel heading into summer recess with huge poll lead

Germany hosts the G20 Summit in Hamburg

Angela Merkel will host the annual G20 meeting in Hamburg this weekend, welcoming state leaders from the world’s most important economies in Germany to discuss a whole plethora of urgent world affairs. Topics on the agenda include for instance the most recent diplomatic incidents concerning Qatar, the ongoing civil war in Syria, potential threats posed by digitisation and large-scaled hacker attacks and future prospects for the African continent. More than 19,000 policemen have been deployed to protect the chancellor’s high-profile guests since at least two major protest marches have been announced, one of them including well-known militants that are particularly  likely to use violence. For world leaders, the summit itself is widely considered an expedient platform to familiarise themselves with each other and to address major challenges as a seemingly unified bloc. However, Ms Merkel may also take the opportunity to distinguish her calm leadership approach from the more impulsive style of U.S. President Trump and his Turkish colleague Erdogan, thus strengthening her own role as a global key player.

Domestically, the chancellor is maintaining a strong position as well. Together with CSU chairman and Bavarian Minister-President Horst Seehofer, Ms Merkel has just presented their parties’ election manifesto, labelling it „a great opportunity to dream a little bit about the future.“ With not even 80 pages, the CDU/CSU’s program is not particularly extensive but still aiming at a great number of different subjects: More housing construction projects, lower unemployment figures and taxes, increased investments in the fields of research and education and a more restrictive asylum policy are all mentioned in the text. However, the refugee crisis has lost its topical dominance with even Mr Seehofer stating that his infamous „Obergrenze“ (upper limit) won’t play any further role for the election campaign. „It’s alright. There is not a single point where we had a serious content-related dispute“, he proclaimed. Since Ms Merkel is still leading in the most recent GMS (06.07., 39% to 23%), Forsa (05.07., 39% to 23%) and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (07.07., 40% to 24%) polls by double digits, the CDU/CSU’s manifesto will most probably serve as the foundation of a potential coalition treaty with either the FDP or the Greens – maybe even with both.

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